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What will be the fate of the smuggled heat-seeking missiles by Dec 31, 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Intercepted by U.S. authorities • 25%
Used in an attack • 25%
Still at large • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from U.S. intelligence agencies or news reports confirming the outcome.
Story
Nine Heat-Seeking Missiles Smuggled into U.S. by Sinaloa Cartel to Target Trump Force One
Sep 26, 2024, 09:38 PM
Reports have emerged that nine heat-seeking surface-to-air missiles have been smuggled into the U.S. through the New Mexico border. The intended target is reportedly Trump Force One, the private plane of former President Donald Trump. Intelligence sources indicate that the Sinaloa Cartel facilitated the smuggling of these shoulder-fired missiles for Iranian-backed militants. Three operational teams are said to be in place within the U.S. to execute the attack. Both Trump and U.S. intelligence agencies have been informed of the threat. The Secret Service is recommending alternative travel arrangements for Trump's campaign. Fox News aired the initial reports, and a confidential human source relayed information to Baz.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased military action by Israel • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant change in relations • 25%
Other developments • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Transfer completed • 25%
Transfer halted by Iran • 25%
Transfer halted by international intervention • 25%
Transfer never initiated • 25%
Missiles Transferred • 25%
Negotiations Fail • 25%
Negotiations Continue • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Used in combat • 25%
Destroyed • 25%
Recaptured by government • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Russia modifies trucks • 25%
Iran provides launchers • 25%
Missiles remain non-operational • 25%
Other • 25%
UN sanctions on Russia • 25%
UN sanctions on Iran • 25%
UN resolution condemning actions • 25%
No UN action • 25%
Rebuilt with foreign assistance • 25%
Rebuilt independently • 25%
Remain largely non-operational • 25%
Replaced with new systems • 25%
Significant damage to Russian military targets • 25%
Minimal damage to Russian military targets • 25%
No significant use of Storm Shadow missiles • 25%
Other • 25%