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What will be the outcome of Iran's potential missile transfer to Russia by December 31, 2024?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Transfer completed • 25%
Transfer halted by Iran • 25%
Transfer halted by international intervention • 25%
Transfer never initiated • 25%
Verified reports from major news agencies or official statements from involved parties
Story
U.S. Warns Iran Against Fath-360 Missile Transfer to Russia
Aug 12, 2024, 04:21 PM
The United States has expressed deep concern over reports that Iran plans to deliver hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia. This potential transfer, involving the Fath-360 short-range ballistic missile system, is seen as a significant escalation in Iran's support for Russia's military efforts in Ukraine. According to two European intelligence sources, Russian military personnel are currently being trained in Iran to operate these missile systems. In response, the U.S. State Department, along with its European partners, is considering measures to counter this move and has warned of a 'swift and severe response' should Iran proceed with the missile transfer.
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Strengthened Alliance • 25%
No Change • 25%
Strained Relations • 25%
Severed Relations • 25%
Significant increase in conflict intensity • 25%
Moderate increase in conflict intensity • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in conflict intensity • 25%
New sanctions on Russia • 25%
New sanctions on Iran • 25%
Condemnation without sanctions • 25%
No official response • 25%
New Sanctions • 25%
Military Action • 25%
Diplomatic Measures • 25%
No Action • 25%
UN sanctions on Russia • 25%
UN sanctions on Iran • 25%
UN resolution condemning actions • 25%
No UN action • 25%
Missiles transferred • 25%
Talks end without agreement • 25%
Talks continue into 2025 • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Negotiations fail • 25%
No negotiations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%