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What will be the effect of Iran's engagement with Syria's new leadership on regional stability by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased regional stability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased regional tensions • 25%
Unpredictable outcomes • 25%
Analyses from credible geopolitical think tanks or reports from major news outlets
Story
After Assad's Ouster, Iran Seeks Dialogue with Syria's Rebel Leaders to Prevent Hostile Relations
Dec 9, 2024, 07:50 AM
Following the ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Iran has established direct channels to engage with some groups within Syria's rebel leadership, according to a senior Iranian official cited by Reuters on Monday. Tehran is open to direct dialogue with the new leadership to prevent a hostile trajectory between the two countries and avoid further regional tensions. The official emphasized that engaging with Syria's rebel leaders is key to stabilizing ties and maintaining regional stability.
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Increased stability • 25%
Decreased stability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other impact • 25%
Iran mediates a peace agreement • 25%
Iran withdraws support from Syria • 25%
Iran maintains current involvement • 25%
Other • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
Weakened relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Severed relations • 25%
Improved relations with Iran • 25%
Improved relations with Western countries • 25%
Strained relations with neighboring countries • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase diplomatic efforts for peace • 25%
Focus on regional alliances • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Withdraw from regional involvement • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
Maintained status quo • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
Weakened relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Diplomatic fallout • 25%
Strengthened alliances • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Weakened alliances • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased Iranian influence • 25%
Decreased Iranian influence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other regional power gains influence • 25%
Successful Agreement • 25%
Stalled Negotiations • 25%
Increased Tensions • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Full withdrawal • 25%