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What will be the change in illegal migrant activity at the Poland-Belarus border by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Decrease in activity • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in activity • 25%
Significant increase in activity • 25%
Official statements from the Polish government or verified news reports
Story
Poland to Deploy 17,000 Soldiers to Belarus Border, Increase Defense Spending to 5% of GDP
Jul 13, 2024, 01:53 AM
Poland has announced it will increase the number of soldiers on its border with Belarus to 17,000 in response to escalating tensions. This move comes amid reports of illegal immigrants, allegedly armed and encouraged by Russia, attacking Polish border guards. One EU border guard was killed by spear-throwing migrants. Polish officials believe this surge in arrivals is part of Russia's hybrid war tactics. In addition, Poland's Parliament has passed a new law allowing soldiers, border guards, and police officers to use live ammunition to stop attempts by migrants to storm the Belarusian border. The law was passed with overwhelming support, with 401 MPs voting in favor and 17 against. Furthermore, Poland plans to increase its defense spending to 5% of GDP in 2025, up from 4.2% this year, making it the highest in NATO. Foreign Minister Sikorski stated this increase is in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
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Less than 1,000 • 25%
1,000 to 5,000 • 25%
5,001 to 10,000 • 25%
More than 10,000 • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
EU intervention • 25%
Status quo • 25%
North African • 25%
Middle Eastern • 25%
Sub-Saharan African • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased border security • 25%
Humanitarian aid • 25%
Diplomatic efforts • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Spear-throwing • 25%
Climbing fences • 25%
Tunneling • 25%
Other • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
Increased border activity • 25%
No official response • 25%
Other significant response • 25%
0-10 • 25%
11-20 • 25%
21-30 • 25%
31 or more • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
North Africa • 25%
Middle East • 25%
Eastern Europe • 25%
Other • 25%
Decrease by more than 50% • 25%
Decrease by 25-50% • 25%
Decrease by less than 25% • 25%
No significant change or increase • 25%