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How will neighboring countries respond to the Polish-Belarusian border crisis by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased border security • 25%
Humanitarian aid • 25%
Diplomatic efforts • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Verified news reports from reputable sources such as BBC, Reuters, or Associated Press
Story
Polish Border Guards Open Fire on Migrants Amid Russian Hybrid Warfare at Belarus Border
Aug 12, 2024, 02:19 AM
Polish border guards have reportedly opened fire on a group of illegal migrants attempting to cross the border from Belarus into Poland. This incident is part of ongoing tensions at the Polish-Belarusian border, which has been described as being under a hybrid attack involving the weaponization of illegal migration by Russia, in cooperation with the Belarusian regime. Polish border guards have been filmed firing their weapons in response to these attempts. The situation has escalated following the recent killing of a Polish soldier by an illegal migrant, prompting a shift in the Polish military and border patrol's approach to handling such breaches. Polish soldiers have also been explaining to fake asylum seekers that entry into Europe without proper documentation is not permitted.
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Diplomatic protest • 25%
Increased border activity • 25%
No official response • 25%
Other significant response • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Cyber attacks • 25%
No significant response • 25%
UN sanctions on Russia • 25%
UN sanctions on Belarus • 25%
UN peacekeeping mission • 25%
No significant international action • 25%
Decrease in activity • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in activity • 25%
Significant increase in activity • 25%
Direct military conflict • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Continued standoff without escalation • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
North African • 25%
Middle Eastern • 25%
Sub-Saharan African • 25%
Other • 25%
Support Poland's policy • 25%
Oppose Poland's policy • 25%
Remain neutral • 25%
Other • 25%
UN intervention • 25%
EU sanctions • 25%
Bilateral talks • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Condemnation by the UN • 25%
Sanctions by the EU • 25%
Support from Russia • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Sanctions by the EU • 25%
Sanctions by the US • 25%
UN condemnation • 25%
No significant international response • 25%