Loading...
Market
What key personnel changes will occur in North Korea affecting US relations by end of 2025?
2
South Korea•National Intelligence Service•NIS•Donald Trump•North Korean•Trump•Kim•North Korea•Richard Grenell•Alex Wong•White House
Resolution / Starting Odds
Military Leadership Change • 25%
Diplomatic Leadership Change • 25%
No Significant Changes • 25%
Other Changes • 25%
Announcements from North Korean government, credible news sources
Story
Trump May Seek Dialogue with Kim Jong-un Post-January 20 Inauguration, 'Small Deal' on Nuclear Program: South Korea's Intelligence
Jan 13, 2025, 10:15 AM
South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) has indicated that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump may seek dialogue with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un following his inauguration on January 20. The NIS suggests that Trump views his previous summits with Kim as major achievements from his first term and could pursue a 'small deal' on North Korea's nuclear program if complete denuclearization in a short period is deemed unfeasible. The agency also noted that Trump's appointment of Richard Grenell as a special envoy and Alex Wong as a key White House adviser could facilitate such dialogue. Additionally, the NIS mentioned that North Korea has taken a hardline stance against the incoming Trump administration, as evidenced by personnel changes made at the end of last year.
View original story
Similar markets
New economic policies • 25%
New military leadership • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Kim Jong Un replaced • 25%
Leadership unknown • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
New military commander appointed • 25%
Shared leadership structure • 25%
More Diplomatic • 25%
Unclear/Other • 25%
More Aggressive • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Temporary leadership • 25%
New leader elected • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased training • 25%
Change in deployment strategy • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Unknown strategy • 25%
Increase nuclear development • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Seek international alliances • 25%
Strengthen conventional forces • 25%
Talks canceled • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Talks postponed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
No change • 25%
Strengthened alliances with Russia • 25%
New alliances formed • 25%
Weakened alliances • 25%
Joint Russian-North Korean military strategy • 25%
No changes reported • 25%
Change in North Korean leadership • 25%
Change in Russian military strategy • 25%
President Yoon remains in office • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Interim government established • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Increased Military Activity • 25%
No Official Response • 25%
Diplomatic Condemnation Only • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
New conflict • 25%