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What are the political repercussions within the GOP following the contempt vote?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase in GOP internal divisions • 25%
Strengthening of GOP unity • 25%
No change in GOP unity • 25%
Public backlash against GOP • 25%
News reports, public GOP statements
Story
House GOP to Vote on Contempt for AG Garland Over Biden Audio, May 16
May 13, 2024, 07:29 PM
House Republicans are moving to hold Attorney General Merrick Garland in contempt of Congress for not providing an audio recording of President Biden's interview with Special Counsel Robert K. Hur, impeding the Biden impeachment probe. The GOP-led House Oversight Committee, chaired by James Comer, is set to vote on a resolution for this contempt charge. Garland now faces two contempt charges as he failed to comply with congressional subpoenas demanding the audio files, which described Biden as 'elderly' with a 'poor memory', although a transcript was provided. The vote is scheduled for Thursday, May 16, 2024, at 11:00 am ET.
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Resignation • 25%
Censure • 25%
No significant consequences • 25%
Increased political support • 25%
Republicans Gain Seats • 33%
Democrats Gain Seats • 33%
No Significant Change • 34%
Significant impact on Republican Party • 25%
Significant impact on Democratic Party • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Impact on individual careers but not parties • 25%
Structural changes in leadership • 25%
Public reconciliation efforts • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Increased disciplinary actions • 25%
Increase in GOP seats • 25%
Decrease in GOP seats • 25%
No significant change in GOP seats • 25%
Significant lawsuits impacting election outcomes • 25%
Biden administration issues statement supporting Garland • 25%
Republican-led committees launch further investigations • 25%
Democratic-led committees call for end of investigations • 25%
Other significant political actions or statements • 25%
Significant increase • 25%
Significant decrease • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Initial dip then recovery • 25%
Gain more seats • 33%
Lose seats • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Increased scrutiny on Biden • 33%
Status quo maintained • 33%
Decreased scrutiny on Biden • 34%
Trump gains full support • 33%
Party remains divided • 33%
Anti-Trump faction prevails • 33%
Boost in popularity for the committee • 25%
Drop in popularity for the committee • 25%
No significant change in popularity • 25%
Increased polarization and controversy • 25%