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US and HTS formal counter-terrorism agreement by mid-2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements or agreements published by the US government or HTS
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US Cancels $10M Bounty on HTS Leader Al-Sharaa After Anti-Terror Pledge
Dec 20, 2024, 06:24 PM
The United States has canceled the $10 million bounty on Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the leader of the Syrian group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and considered by some as the de facto leader of Syria. US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, Barbara Leaf, announced the decision on December 20 after meeting with al-Sharaa in Damascus. During the meeting, which focused on Syria's political transition, al-Sharaa pledged not to allow terrorist organizations to operate in Syria or threaten the United States. The US had previously offered the reward for information leading to his capture.
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Regional collaboration • 25%
Independent framework • 25%
With international oversight • 25%
None implemented by this date • 25%
Partial recognition • 25%
No decision announced • 25%
Removed from list • 25%
Remains on list • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Complete disengagement • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Continued engagement • 25%
Increased engagement • 25%
Other policy changes • 25%
Conditional engagement • 25%
Continued isolation • 25%
EU supports US decision • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
UN supports US decision • 25%
Russia condemns US decision • 25%