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Market
Changes in Russian Military Strategy Post-Drills by End of 2024
5
Russia•NATO•Western•Vladimir Putin•Southern Military District•Ukraine•Steadfast Defender•Russian•Putin
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase in nuclear arsenal • 25%
Reduction in nuclear arsenal • 25%
No change in nuclear strategy • 25%
Shift in focus to conventional weapons • 25%
Statements from Russian Defense Ministry or major international defense analysts
Story
Putin Orders Tactical Nuclear Drills Amid NATO Threats, Involving Non-Strategic Weapons
May 6, 2024, 11:30 AM
Russia has announced it will conduct military exercises involving tactical nuclear weapons in response to perceived threats from NATO and recent Western statements. The drills, ordered by President Vladimir Putin, will involve missile units, aviation, and naval forces in the Southern Military District, which includes areas near Ukraine. This move comes after NATO's significant four-month-long military exercises near Russia's borders, dubbed Steadfast Defender, and statements by Western officials regarding potential military involvement in Ukraine. Russian officials have described the exercises, which include the involvement of non-strategic nuclear weapons, as necessary to ensure national security and deter Western aggression, amid escalating tensions between Russia and NATO countries. Putin personally issued the orders for these drills.
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Increase in military exercises • 25%
No change in military strategy • 25%
Reduction in overt military activities • 25%
Strategic alliances with other nations • 25%
Increased military readiness • 50%
No change in readiness • 25%
Decreased military readiness • 25%
Significant changes • 33%
Minor changes • 33%
No changes • 33%
Increased reliance on tactical nukes • 33%
Broadened conditions for use • 33%
No significant changes • 33%
Increased military engagement • 33%
Unchanged military engagement • 34%
Decreased military engagement • 33%
Expansion of drills to include strategic nuclear forces • 33%
Reduction in military activities post-drills • 33%
Maintenance of current level of military activities • 34%
Enhanced deterrence capability • 33%
No significant change • 33%
Decreased stability in the region • 34%
Successful test of new tactical weapons • 25%
Technical failures during drills • 25%
Expansion of drills to other military districts • 25%
Reduction in scale or scope of drills • 25%