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Market
Significant cyber espionage incident attributed to China in the US by mid-2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Public news reports and official statements from US cybersecurity agencies
Story
FBI Director Wray Resigns Before Trump's Inauguration, Defends Mar-a-Lago Raid
Jan 13, 2025, 02:00 AM
Outgoing FBI Director Christopher Wray has resigned ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration, citing Trump's desire for a change in leadership at the bureau. In a recent interview on CBS's '60 Minutes,' Wray defended the FBI's raid on Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate, emphasizing the agency's duty to act when classified information is mishandled. He also discussed the broader threat landscape, including cyber espionage from China and the rapid radicalization of domestic terrorists. Wray expressed confidence in the FBI's handling of investigations related to Trump, asserting that the agency follows the facts and adheres to its rules and procedures. He highlighted the importance of the FBI's collaboration with other law enforcement and intelligence agencies to ensure the safety of the upcoming inauguration, despite no specific or credible threats being tracked.
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Transportation • 25%
Banking • 25%
Energy • 25%
Telecommunications • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
North Korea • 25%
Other • 25%
China • 25%
Russia • 25%
Iran • 25%
Russia • 25%
North Korea • 25%
China • 25%
Diplomatic dialogue initiated • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Other measures • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Severe diplomatic conflict • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Increased Cybersecurity Measures • 25%
Cyber Retaliation • 25%
Diplomatic Sanctions • 25%
Economic Sanctions • 25%
