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Resolution of territorial control in Ukraine by the end of 2025
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Russia retains all current territories • 25%
Territorial swaps occur • 25%
Ukraine regains some territories • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
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Putin to Demand Ukraine's NATO Exclusion, Neutrality, and Limited Army in Talks with Trump: Bloomberg
Jan 15, 2025, 06:00 PM
Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to demand that Ukraine never joins NATO and becomes a neutral state with a limited army in any upcoming negotiations with incoming US President Donald Trump, according to Bloomberg sources. Putin's conditions also include a drastic reduction of Ukraine's military ties with the NATO alliance. Russia is expected to insist that while NATO countries may continue to supply weapons to Ukraine, these should not be used against Russia or to recapture territories. The Kremlin aims to maintain at least de facto control over the nearly 20% of Ukrainian territory it currently holds, including Crimea, though it is open to some territorial swaps.
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