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Primary outcome of Aleppo offensive by April 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant territorial gains for HTS • 25%
Stalemate with little change • 25%
Government forces regain control • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Analysis and reports from international conflict monitoring agencies
Story
Syrian Rebels Capture Key Towns, Including 46th Regiment Base, in Major Aleppo Offensive
Nov 27, 2024, 11:52 AM
Syrian rebel factions, led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have launched a significant offensive against Syrian government forces in the western Aleppo countryside, marking the first major rebel initiative since 2020. The operation, described as a "preemptive strike" or "deterrence of aggression," resulted in the capture of several towns and villages, including Qubtan al-Jabal, Sheikh Aqil, and the strategically located 46th Regiment base. Drone footage showed regime soldiers fleeing their positions. In response, Russian and Syrian air forces conducted extensive airstrikes against HTS positions, including heavy bombardment of the town of Darat Izza and targeting the Turkish-backed Taftanaz military base. The Syrian Army's 25th Special Mission Forces Division has been deployed to the region. The escalation raises concerns over intensified fighting, potential shifts in frontlines, and the heavy toll on civilians in northwestern Syria.
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