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Market
Primary Hezbollah response to elimination of commanders by end of 2024?
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Israeli Defense Forces•IDF•Lebanon•Hezbollah•Muhammad Ramal•Tayibe•Bint Jbeil•Israeli•Bassel Mustafa Shukr•Radwan Force•Ehud Goldwasser•Eldad Regev•Houthi•Yemen•Southern Front•Tebnine•Israeli Air Force•IAF
Resolution / Starting Odds
Military retaliation against Israel • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
Increased recruitment and propaganda • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Statements from Hezbollah or major news outlets reporting on Hezbollah's actions
Story
Israel Airstrikes Eliminate Four Senior Hezbollah Commanders in Southern Lebanon
Oct 19, 2024, 11:50 PM
Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) operations in southern Lebanon on Friday resulted in the elimination of several senior Hezbollah commanders. Among those killed are Muhammad Ramal, the commander of Hezbollah in the Tayibe area; Naser Abed al-Aziz Rashid, the deputy commander of Hezbollah forces in the Bint Jbeil area who was involved in organizing attacks on Israeli civilians; and Bassel Mustafa Shukr, a senior commander in Hezbollah's elite Radwan Force who was implicated in the 2006 kidnapping of Israeli soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev and had trained Houthi fighters in Yemen. Additionally, Al-Haj Abbas Salama, a senior commander in Hezbollah's Southern Front who oversaw combat operations in the Bint Jbeil area, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in the Tebnine area. The Israeli Air Force (IAF), directed by IDF intelligence, conducted these targeted strikes as part of ongoing efforts to counter Hezbollah activities along the border.
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Direct military retaliation • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
Increased recruitment and mobilization • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Military support • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
Economic aid • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Military retaliation • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased rocket attacks • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Retaliatory ground operations • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Rocket attacks on Israel • 25%
Ground incursions • 25%
Cyberattacks • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Military retaliation • 25%
Diplomatic response • 25%
Cyber attacks • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Military retaliation • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other • 25%
Military retaliation • 25%
Political/diplomatic response • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other • 25%
Military retaliation against Israel • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation without military action • 25%
Increased recruitment and propaganda • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Rocket attacks • 25%
Ground incursions • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Leadership Change • 25%
Increased Aggression • 25%
Calls for Ceasefire • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Missile strikes against Israel • 25%
Guerrilla attacks in southern Lebanon • 25%
Political and diplomatic maneuvers • 25%
No significant response • 25%