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Market
Political Outcome for Yoon by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yoon resigns • 25%
Yoon is impeached • 25%
Yoon remains in office • 25%
Other political outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the South Korean government or political parties.
Story
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol Faces Arrest by CIO Amid Allegations of Sedition and Abuse of Power
Jan 2, 2025, 01:29 AM
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol faces imminent arrest following the issuance of an arrest warrant by the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO). The warrant, issued three days ago, is set to be executed as early as today. President Yoon has indicated his refusal to cooperate with the execution of the warrant, sparking concerns over potential physical confrontations between his supporters and law enforcement. Yoon's supporters have gathered outside his residence in Seoul's Yongsan district, and tensions are escalating as the deadline for the warrant's execution approaches. The warrant is related to allegations of sedition and abuse of power against President Yoon. The Democratic Party has called for the immediate arrest of Yoon, warning that any obstruction would be tantamount to complicity in sedition. Meanwhile, Yoon's legal team has argued that the warrant is illegal and has called for the judge who issued it to be removed from duty.
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Remains in office • 25%
Arrested • 25%
Impeached • 25%
Resigns • 25%
Remains free and not detained • 25%
Arrested and detained • 25%
Escapes or flees the country • 25%
Other • 25%
Protests lead to President Yoon's resignation • 25%
Protests escalate into larger national movement • 25%
Protests lead to new government policies • 25%
Protests subside with no major change • 25%
Martial law lifted, Yoon remains • 25%
No significant change • 25%
President Yoon resigns • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other • 25%
Resigns • 25%
Impeached • 25%
Successfully completes term • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Impeached by National Assembly • 25%
Resigns from office • 25%
Remains in office • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Impeachment upheld and Yoon removed • 25%
Impeachment overturned and Yoon reinstated • 25%
Impeachment process stalled with no resolution • 25%
Protests remain evenly matched • 25%
Pro-Yoon protests prevail • 25%
Anti-Yoon protests prevail • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Impeached • 25%
Not Impeached • 25%
Resignation • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
No action • 25%
Impeachment proceedings • 25%
Resignation • 25%
Continued investigation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol reinstated • 25%
Prime Minister Han Duck-soo becomes president • 25%
New presidential elections called • 25%
Plea Deal • 25%
Ongoing Trial • 25%
Conviction • 25%
Acquittal • 25%