Loading...
Market
Political outcome for União Brasil in Goiás by Dec 31, 2025?
2
TRE•Ronaldo Caiado•União Brasil•Caiado•Palácio das Esmeraldas•Goiás•Sandro Mabel•Goiânia•Mabel•Cláudia Lira•Avante•Superior Electoral Court•TSE
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased Influence • 25%
Decreased Influence • 25%
No Change • 25%
Unclear Outcome • 25%
Official announcements or election results in Goiás
Story
Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado Ruled Ineligible for 8 Years, Impacting 2026 Presidential Candidacy
Dec 11, 2024, 03:35 PM
The Regional Electoral Court of Goiás (TRE-GO) has ruled Governor Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil) ineligible to run for office for eight years due to political power abuse. This decision stems from Caiado's use of the Palácio das Esmeraldas, the seat of the Goiás government, for political events supporting Sandro Mabel (União Brasil), the elected mayor of Goiânia. Mabel's registration as mayor has also been revoked, along with that of his vice-mayor, Cláudia Lira (Avante). The ruling, which can be appealed, was based on a resolution from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) this year, citing the use of 'magic words' to disguise vote solicitation. Caiado, who secured re-election with over 1.8 million votes, has not yet commented on the decision, but his allies are confident that it will be overturned. The case has sparked discussions on the implications for Caiado's potential presidential candidacy in 2026. The political dinners at the Palácio das Esmeraldas were highlighted as the reason for the condemnation.
View original story
Similar markets
Still under discussion • 25%
Approved without changes • 25%
Approved with changes • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Minor shift in political power • 25%
Significant shift in political power • 25%
No change in political power • 25%
Increase in political instability • 25%
Exile • 25%
Continued political career • 25%
Exoneration • 25%
Imprisonment • 25%
Achieve target • 25%
Exceed target by more than 0.25% of GDP • 25%
Fail to meet target • 25%
Exceed target by up to 0.25% of GDP • 25%
Yoon is impeached • 25%
Other political outcome • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Yoon remains in office • 25%
Economic recovery • 25%
Further depreciation • 25%
Stabilized Real • 25%
Economic recession • 25%
Protests Dissolve • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Government Concessions • 25%
Increased Crackdowns • 25%
No change • 25%
Increase by 1% • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Increase by less than 1% • 25%
Below 8% • 25%
Above 10% • 25%
9% to 10% • 25%
8% to 9% • 25%