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Market
Poland's diplomatic response to Belarus by December 31, 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
No significant action • 33%
Expulsion of Belarusian diplomats • 33%
Introduction of new sanctions • 33%
Official diplomatic communications or credible news reports
Story
Polish Soldier Mateusz Dies After May 28 Stabbing by Migrant on Belarus Border
Jun 6, 2024, 08:29 PM
A Polish soldier, identified as Mateusz, has died after being stabbed by a migrant while attempting to stop a group of 50 illegals from crossing the border from Belarus into the European Union. The incident occurred on May 28 when the soldier was attacked with a makeshift bayonet. Following the soldier's death, Poland has summoned the Belarusian envoy in Warsaw. Tributes have been laid outside the military hospital in Warsaw where the soldier succumbed to his injuries. Belarus has expressed readiness to investigate the incident if specific information is provided.
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Condemnation but no action • 25%
Sanctions against Belarus • 25%
Military support to Poland • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increase border security • 25%
Engage in diplomatic talks with Belarus • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Seek EU-wide solution • 25%
Diplomatic sanctions • 33%
Economic sanctions • 33%
No significant actions • 34%
Poland only • 33%
Poland and Belarus • 33%
Poland, Belarus, and EU • 33%
Significant deterioration • 25%
Minor or no change • 25%
Improvement through diplomatic efforts • 25%
Stagnation in relations • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Diplomatic expulsions • 33%
Trade restrictions • 33%
Military posturing • 34%