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Market
Permanent Consumer Shift to Alternative Fruit Juices by Year-End?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Consumer surveys and sales data from major retailers
Story
Orange Juice Prices Surge to Record $476 Amid Adverse Weather in Brazil
May 29, 2024, 09:35 AM
Orange juice prices have surged to record highs, reaching $476 per pound, driven by adverse weather and crop diseases in Brazil, the world's largest exporter. Concentrated orange juice futures hit $4.92 per pound, almost double the price from a year ago. On January 1, 2023, prices were at $207 per pound. The price increase has prompted manufacturers to explore using mandarins as an alternative. The Financial Times reports that these shortages and rising prices may fundamentally reshape the global orange juice industry, with consumers potentially switching to other fruit juices.
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No shift (no change in consumption) • 25%
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Increase in pasteurized milk purchases • 25%
Decrease in overall milk consumption • 25%
Shift to non-dairy alternatives • 25%
Increased spending • 33%
No change in spending • 33%
Decreased spending • 33%
Full recovery to pre-2023 prices • 25%
Partial recovery (prices higher than pre-2023 but lower than current) • 25%
No recovery (prices remain near current levels) • 25%
Worsening (prices increase further) • 25%
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Lobbying against the ban • 33%
No changes in product lineup • 34%
Brazil • 33%
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China • 34%
Positive response • 33%
Negative response • 33%
No noticeable response • 34%