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Over 50% evacuation of Tyre and Baalbek residents by November 7, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from international organizations or local authorities on evacuation numbers
Story
IDF Urges Over 100,000 Residents of Tyre and Baalbek to Evacuate Ahead of Airstrikes on Hezbollah Sites
Oct 30, 2024, 09:24 AM
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have issued urgent evacuation warnings to residents of Tyre and Baalbek in southern and eastern Lebanon, respectively, ahead of planned airstrikes against Hezbollah positions. The IDF, through its Arabic spokesperson Col. Avichay Adraee, urged over 100,000 civilians to evacuate immediately to ensure their safety, emphasizing that they do not intend to harm civilians but are compelled to act due to Hezbollah's activities in the region. Residents were instructed to stay away from Hezbollah infrastructure and, in Tyre, to move immediately from the marked red zone to areas north of the Awali River. Evacuation maps and specific routes were shared on social media, with the warnings affecting Baalbek and surrounding suburbs.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Successful evacuation with no airstrikes • 25%
Partial evacuation with airstrikes • 25%
No evacuation with airstrikes • 25%
Evacuation with negotiated ceasefire • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Successful operations with minimal civilian impact • 25%
Operations with significant civilian impact • 25%
Operations aborted or postponed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Less than 10,000 • 25%
10,000 to 50,000 • 25%
50,001 to 100,000 • 25%
More than 100,000 • 25%
