Loading...
Market
Primary Outcome of IDF Evacuation Warning for Baalbek by December 31, 2024
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful evacuation with no airstrikes • 25%
Partial evacuation with airstrikes • 25%
No evacuation with airstrikes • 25%
Evacuation with negotiated ceasefire • 25%
Credible news reports and official statements from IDF or Lebanese authorities
Story
IDF Issues First-Ever Evacuation Warning for Entire City of Baalbek in Lebanon
Oct 30, 2024, 09:42 AM
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have issued an evacuation warning for the entire city of Baalbek in eastern Lebanon, ahead of planned airstrikes on Hezbollah sites. IDF spokesperson Col. Avichay Adraee emphasized the importance of avoiding civilian harm and urged residents to leave via designated routes. This marks the first time an evacuation order has been given for an entire city in Lebanon. The evacuation notice affects over 100,000 residents in Baalbek and surrounding areas in the Beqaa Valley.
View original story
Similar markets
Major evacuation • 25%
Partial evacuation • 25%
No significant evacuation • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful strikes with no Hezbollah response • 25%
Successful strikes with Hezbollah response • 25%
Strikes called off • 25%
Strikes result in significant international condemnation • 25%
Successful with minimal civilian impact • 25%
Successful with significant civilian impact • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
No airstrikes conducted • 25%
Destruction of Hezbollah infrastructure • 25%
Significant civilian casualties • 25%
Hezbollah retaliation • 25%
International condemnation • 25%
IDF withdrawal after achieving objectives • 25%
Prolonged military presence • 25%
UN-mediated resolution • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no further incidents • 25%
Increased military engagements • 25%
Negotiation of a new ceasefire • 25%
Escalation into broader conflict • 25%
Syrian military withdraws • 25%
No change in Syrian military presence • 25%
Increase in Syrian military presence • 25%
Syrian military takes retaliatory action • 25%
Significant reduction in Hezbollah presence • 25%
Stalemate with no major changes • 25%
Hezbollah regains strength • 25%
Other • 25%
Majority evacuated • 25%
Partial evacuation • 25%
No significant evacuation • 25%
Evacuation not confirmed • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Complete withdrawal of IDF • 25%
Ongoing operations without major change • 25%
Escalation to full-scale conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Continued presence with reduced activity • 25%
Escalation of operations • 25%
Stalemate • 25%