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Outcome of U.S. negotiations with NATO allies on contributions by end of 2025
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Allies agree to increase contributions • 25%
No change in contributions • 25%
U.S. reduces its contributions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from the U.S. government, NATO, or major news outlets
Story
Trump Threatens U.S. Exit from NATO Unless Allies Increase Financial Contributions, NBC News Reports
Dec 8, 2024, 02:51 PM
In a recent interview with NBC News, Donald Trump stated that the United States would consider withdrawing from NATO unless allied nations increase their financial contributions. Trump emphasized that if the allies are fulfilling their financial obligations and treating the U.S. fairly, he would remain committed to NATO. His comments reflect a growing concern over the financial disparities within the alliance, as Trump has previously criticized NATO members for not meeting their defense spending commitments. The remarks have raised alarms about the future of U.S. involvement in NATO amid ongoing global security challenges.
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Similar markets
Maintain 2% target • 25%
Increase to 5% target • 25%
No consensus reached • 25%
Increase to 3% target • 25%
No increase agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
5% GDP target agreed • 25%
3.5% GDP target agreed • 25%
Postponed • 25%
Adopted as proposed • 25%
Adopted with modifications • 25%
Rejected • 25%
No change • 25%
Decrease contributions • 25%
Publicly criticize Trump's stance • 25%
Increase contributions • 25%
