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What will be the outcome of Trump's NATO defense spending demand by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
5% GDP target agreed • 25%
3.5% GDP target agreed • 25%
No increase agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official NATO announcements or agreements
Story
Trump to Demand NATO Allies Spend 5% of GDP on Defense, May Settle for 3.5%, Will Continue Ukraine Aid
Dec 20, 2024, 05:21 PM
Donald Trump's team has informed European officials that the incoming US president will demand NATO member states increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP, according to the Financial Times. Trump's team indicated he may settle for a 3.5% target. The US currently spends 3.5% on defense, while Poland is close to the proposed target, spending 4.7%. At present, only 23 of NATO's 32 members meet the existing 2% target. Despite advocating for an immediate end to the conflict and opposing Ukraine's NATO membership, Trump plans to continue supplying military aid to Ukraine after his inauguration.
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Proposes alternative measures • 25%
Opposes NATO's call • 25%
Supports NATO's call • 25%
No significant response • 25%
No consensus reached • 25%
Increase to 3% target • 25%
Increase to 5% target • 25%
Maintain 2% target • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Adopted as proposed • 25%
Adopted with modifications • 25%
Postponed • 25%
Increase contributions • 25%
Publicly criticize Trump's stance • 25%
Decrease contributions • 25%
No change • 25%
U.S. reduces its contributions • 25%
Allies agree to increase contributions • 25%
No change in contributions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negative impact • 25%
Positive impact • 25%
Mixed impact • 25%
No change • 25%
