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Outcome of the Gaza conflict by November 30
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire reached • 33%
Continuation of hostilities • 33%
Decisive military resolution • 34%
Analysis from credible geopolitical analysts and reports from major international news outlets.
Story
Israel Refuses Gaza War End for Hostages, IDF to Demolish Hamas in Rafah
May 5, 2024, 11:22 AM
Israeli officials have consistently stated that Israel will not agree to end the ongoing Gaza war as part of any hostage deal with Hamas, and is determined to enter Rafah to demolish Hamas battalions. This stance has been reiterated by multiple sources, including statements to Haaretz and N12 News. Despite claims from Hamas and some reports suggesting potential negotiations involving a ceasefire in exchange for hostages, Israeli authorities, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have clarified that while Israel is open to a temporary truce to secure the release of hostages, it will not cease its military objectives or withdraw forces permanently. Netanyahu emphasized that Israel's goals in the conflict must be achieved and dismissed any demands from Hamas that would equate to a surrender by Israel.
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Total Victory • 33%
Ceasefire Agreement • 33%
Ongoing Conflict • 33%
Decisive Israeli Victory • 33%
Stalemate • 33%
Hamas retains strong presence • 34%
Israeli victory • 25%
Hamas maintains control • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire with negotiations ongoing • 25%
Complete ceasefire and hostages released • 25%
Conflict ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Prolonged conflict • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 33%
Temporary truce • 33%
No agreement reached • 34%
Complete cessation • 25%
Reduction in intensity • 25%
Continuation at same level • 25%
Escalation of operations • 25%
Significant territorial gains by Israel • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Withdrawal or reduction of forces by Israel • 25%
Increased control by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire accepted by all parties • 33%
Ceasefire rejected by Israel • 33%
Ceasefire rejected by Hamas • 33%
Ukrainian victory • 33%
Russian victory • 33%
Stalemate • 34%