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Outcome of Peace Transition Strategy by December 31, 2025
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful Transition • 25%
Partial Transition • 25%
Failed Transition • 25%
Ongoing Transition • 25%
Reports from international peace organizations or major news outlets
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Syrian Rebels Ensure Peaceful Transition, Prohibit Forces from Public Institutions
Dec 8, 2024, 03:51 AM
Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian opposition's military operations, has announced that public institutions in Damascus will remain under the supervision of the former prime minister until they are officially handed over. This move is part of an apparent strategy for a peaceful transition of power. Al-Sharaa has also prohibited his forces from approaching these institutions or firing into the air, signaling an intent to maintain order during this transition period. Furthermore, he has extended an offer of safety to those who defect from the Assad regime or surrender themselves.
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Extended negotiations • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No change in conflict status • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Plan rejected by Russia • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Increased presence • 25%
Eliminated • 25%
Stable presence • 25%
Decreased presence • 25%
Successful implementation • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Failed implementation • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Territorial concessions • 25%
Economic cooperation • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Successful peace talks • 25%
Other • 25%
Sanctions or diplomatic pressure • 25%
Increased military cooperation • 25%
Stalemate/Status Quo • 25%
Assad Regime Victory • 25%
Rebel Victory • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Continued military escalation • 25%
Mediation by a third party • 25%
Resolution through other means • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Partial political reforms • 25%
Transition to an inclusive government • 25%
National unity government formed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant progress • 25%