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Outcome of Lebanon's ban on Iranian planes by end of 2024?
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Israel•Lebanon•Iranian•Qeshm Fars Air•Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps•IRGC•Beirut•Rafic Hariri International Airport•Israel Defense Forces•IDF•Iraqi•Iran•Transportation
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ban remains in place • 25%
Ban lifted • 25%
Ban modified • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the Lebanese government or relevant aviation authorities
Story
Israel Forces IRGC-Linked Flight QFZ9964 to Turn Back; Lebanon Bans Iranian Planes
Sep 28, 2024, 08:56 AM
According to multiple reports, Israel has warned Lebanon against allowing an Iranian plane, flight QFZ9964 operated by Qeshm Fars Air and affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), to land at Beirut's Rafic Hariri International Airport. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) allegedly hacked into the airport's control tower communications, threatening to 'destroy the airport' if the plane landed. The Iranian aircraft made a U-turn over Iraqi airspace and returned to Iran. In response, Lebanon's Minister of Transportation has reportedly banned the entry of Iranian planes into the country. The incident highlights increasing tensions in the region over suspected arms smuggling activities.
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Resolution through direct negotiations • 25%
Increased diplomatic tensions • 25%
Mediation by a third party • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Middle East Airlines • 25%
Qatar Airways • 25%
Emirates • 25%
Other • 25%
Ban remains unchanged • 25%
Ban extended to more devices • 25%
Ban lifted partially • 25%
Ban completely lifted • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Diplomatic resolution between Israel and Iran • 25%
Escalation of military tensions • 25%
No significant developments • 25%
Other outcome • 25%