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Outcome of intercepted Iranian plane incident by Mar 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Diplomatic resolution between Israel and Iran • 25%
Escalation of military tensions • 25%
No significant developments • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from international diplomatic channels or major news outlets
Story
IAF Intercepts Iranian Plane Over Syria Overnight, Suspected of Carrying Arms to Hezbollah
Dec 1, 2024, 06:25 PM
The Israeli Air Force intercepted an Iranian cargo plane over Syrian airspace, suspected of ferrying arms to Hezbollah, overnight between Saturday and Sunday. Israeli fighter jets flew up to the aircraft and ordered it to change course, and the plane complied, turning back towards Iran. This incident is part of Israel's ongoing operations to enforce a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which includes preventing the transfer of arms to the group. The plane, believed to be operated by Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, was en route to Damascus when it was intercepted.
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No significant change • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Increased military action by Israel • 25%
No significant change in relations • 25%
Other developments • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Other • 25%
No response • 25%
Offer of assistance • 25%
No further action taken • 25%
New indictments issued • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Iranian government implicated • 25%
Lebanese government • 25%
Iranian government • 25%
Other international entity • 25%
Hezbollah • 25%
Formal protest by Lebanon • 25%
No formal diplomatic action • 25%
Mutual resolution • 25%
Formal protest by Iran • 25%
No further action taken • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Sanctions or restrictions imposed • 25%
Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%
Economic Sanctions • 25%
No Significant Outcome • 25%
UN Resolution • 25%
Bilateral Talks • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Sanctions on Russia • 25%
No significant diplomatic outcome • 25%
Resolution passed at UN • 25%
Bilateral talks between Israel and Iran • 25%
Increased sanctions on Iran • 25%