Loading...
Market
Outcome of Israeli internal investigation into Haniyeh assassination by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Justified action • 25%
Rogue operation • 25%
No conclusive outcome • 25%
Investigation not completed • 25%
Official reports from the Israeli government or credible Israeli news sources
Story
Assassination of Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh on July 31 Nearly Foiled by Broken AC and Remote-Controlled Bomb in Tehran
Dec 28, 2024, 11:27 PM
Reports indicate that the assassination attempt on Ismail Haniyeh, the former Hamas leader, in Tehran nearly failed due to a malfunctioning air conditioning unit in his hotel room. According to Israeli Channel 12, the operation had been planned for months, involving a remote-controlled bomb placed in Haniyeh's guesthouse. The plan was jeopardized when the air conditioning broke down, prompting Haniyeh to leave his room for an extended period. Fortunately for the operatives, hotel staff managed to repair the air conditioning, allowing Haniyeh to return to the room just before the explosive was detonated. This incident highlights the precarious nature of the operation, which was reportedly timed to avoid further embarrassment for Iran following the inauguration of a new president. The assassination took place on July 31, and initial reports had mistakenly suggested that an Israeli missile was responsible for Haniyeh's death.
View original story
Similar markets
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Mossad confirmed as responsible • 25%
Another entity confirmed as responsible • 25%
No conclusive result • 25%
Increased security measures • 25%
Policy changes towards West Bank • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Arrests of additional suspects • 25%
Justified military action • 25%
Mistake in targeting • 25%
No conclusive result • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
Confirmation of current findings • 25%
Revised findings • 25%
No conclusive outcome • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
No wrongdoing found • 25%
Operational errors acknowledged • 25%
Disciplinary actions taken • 25%
Justified under self-defense • 25%
Investigation not completed • 25%
No conclusion reached • 25%
Mistake acknowledged • 25%
Denies details • 25%
Confirms details • 25%
Other response • 25%
No comment • 25%
Other • 25%
Clear evidence against Hamas • 25%
Insufficient evidence • 25%
Evidence of external involvement • 25%
Denies involvement • 25%
Admits responsibility • 25%
Blames external factors • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Enemy action • 25%
Other • 25%
Accidental explosion • 25%
Technical malfunction • 25%