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Outcome of Iran-UAE island dispute by end of 2024
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Iran•Ayatollah Ali Khamenei•Syrian•Tehran•Damascus•Arab League•UAE•Iranian•Assad•Syrian civil war•Russia•Ebrahim Raisi•US•Joe Biden•Islamic Revolution
Resolution / Starting Odds
Status Quo • 33%
Iran Concedes • 33%
UAE Concedes • 33%
Official statements from Iran, UAE, and Arab League, major news outlets
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Iran's Khamenei Meets Syrian President Assad in Tehran, Condolences Sent
May 30, 2024, 11:49 AM
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Tehran on Thursday, according to Iran's SNN. The meeting took place approximately two weeks after Damascus sided with the Arab League on the UAE's claim over three Iranian islands. Assad, who turned the tide of the Syrian civil war with the help of Iranian proxies and Russia in 2011, was in Tehran to express condolences on the death of Ebrahim Raisi. US President Joe Biden also joined Assad in sending condolences to Iran. The meeting was significant as it involved the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution.
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Status Quo • 33%
Resolution Favoring Iran • 33%
Resolution Favoring UAE • 33%
No significant impact • 33%
Deterioration of relations • 33%
Strengthening of relations • 33%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
None • 25%
1-2 countries • 25%
3-4 countries • 25%
5 or more countries • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 33%
Stabilization of relations • 33%
Breakthrough agreement • 34%
Israeli victory • 25%
Hamas maintains control • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Agree to negotiations • 33%
Reject negotiations • 33%
Continue current stance • 33%
Full control of Rafah • 33%
Partial control of Rafah • 33%
Withdrawal without control • 34%
Full-scale conflict • 33%
Limited skirmishes • 33%
De-escalation • 33%