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Outcome of investigation into Ukrainian intelligence's role by end of 2024
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Russia•Islamic State•Moscow•Russian•Federal Security Service•FSB•Alexander Bortnikov•Ukrainian•Crocus City Hall•ISIS
Resolution / Starting Odds
Confirmed involvement • 33%
No involvement • 33%
Inconclusive evidence • 34%
Official investigation results released by Russian authorities
Story
Russia Admits ISIS Behind Deadly March 22nd Moscow Concert Attack with 140 Fatalities
May 24, 2024, 08:03 AM
Russia has stated for the first time that the Islamic State coordinated the deadly concert hall attack in Moscow on March 22nd, 2024, which resulted in over 140 fatalities. Despite this admission, Russian authorities, particularly the Federal Security Service (FSB) led by Alexander Bortnikov, continue to claim that Ukrainian military intelligence was directly involved in the attack. The FSB has detained more than 20 individuals in connection with the incident. The attack on Crocus City Hall has been a subject of ongoing investigation, with conflicting reports about the involvement of Ukrainian intelligence and ISIS's role in coordinating the attack.
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Putin directly involved • 25%
Senior Russian officials involved • 25%
No high-level involvement found • 25%
Inconclusive results • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Russia officially implicated • 33%
Another country implicated • 33%
No official conclusion • 33%
Status quo remains • 25%
Significant Ukrainian gains • 25%
Significant Russian gains • 25%
Negotiated peace settlement • 25%
Recruiters found guilty • 33%
Medical personnel found guilty • 33%
No conclusive outcome • 34%
Investigation finds wrongdoing • 33%
Investigation finds no wrongdoing • 33%
Investigation inconclusive • 34%
Substantiated involvement • 33%
Involvement disproved • 33%
Inconclusive evidence • 34%
Peace agreement reached • 33%
Conflict ongoing • 33%
Conflict escalated • 33%
Deny involvement • 50%
Ignore allegations • 50%
External Militant Group Identified • 33%
Local Militant Collaboration Found • 33%
Inconclusive Results • 34%