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Outcome of investigation into Azerbaijan Airlines crash by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Shot down by Russian defenses • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Other • 25%
Official investigation reports or findings released by the involved parties
Story
Putin Apologizes for Azerbaijan Plane Crash in Russian Airspace Killing 38
Dec 28, 2024, 03:11 PM
Russian President Vladimir Putin has apologized to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev for a "tragic incident" involving the crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243, an Embraer 190 aircraft, in Kazakhstan on December 25, which killed 38 people. During a telephone conversation on December 28, Putin expressed condolences, acknowledging that the crash occurred in Russian airspace when Russian air defenses were active against Ukrainian drones. The Kremlin did not confirm whether the aircraft was shot down, and Putin stopped short of admitting direct responsibility for the incident.
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Accidental • 25%
Negligence • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Undetermined • 25%
Missile strike confirmed • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Other cause • 25%
Russian air defense systems responsible • 25%
Technical failure of aircraft • 25%
Russian air defense responsible • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Other cause • 25%
Russia confirmed responsible • 25%
Russia cleared of responsibility • 25%
Inconclusive findings • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Russia • 25%
Azerbaijan • 25%
Kazakhstan • 25%
Other • 25%
Russia found responsible • 25%
Technical failure • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Other cause • 25%