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Outcome of Azerbaijan Airlines crash investigation by Jun 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Missile strike confirmed • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Other cause • 25%
Official investigation reports from relevant aviation authorities
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Azerbaijan Airlines Plane Crashes in Aktau, Kazakhstan After Suspected Missile Strike Amid Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Grozny
Dec 25, 2024, 01:37 PM
An Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane, identified as 4K-AZ65 and an Embraer ERJ-190AR, crashed in Aktau, Kazakhstan, after reportedly being hit by shrapnel from a surface-to-air missile. The incident occurred while the plane was en route to Grozny, Russia, and had to divert to Aktau as an alternate airport due to Ukrainian kamikaze drones targeting Grozny. Traces of shrapnel were found on the tail and fuselage of the aircraft, suggesting it might have been mistakenly shot down by Russian air defenses amid heightened alert due to ongoing drone attacks in the region. A surviving passenger reported hearing an explosion before the crash, adding to speculation that the plane was brought down by air defense fire.
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Accidental • 25%
Negligence • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Undetermined • 25%
Shot down by Russian defenses • 25%
Mechanical failure • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Russia confirmed responsible • 25%
Russia cleared of responsibility • 25%
Inconclusive findings • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Azerbaijan • 25%
Kazakhstan • 25%
Russia • 25%
International body • 25%
External interference • 25%
Technical failure • 25%
Pilot error • 25%
Other • 25%
