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What will be the outcome of diplomatic efforts between Israel and Iran regarding flight incidents by April 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Agreement reached • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Official announcements from Israeli or Iranian governments or credible international media reports
Story
Israel Threatens to Shoot Down Two Iranian Flights Over Weapons Concerns, Forces Return to Iran
Dec 7, 2024, 09:35 PM
In recent days, two flights operated by a private Iranian airline were forced to turn back while en route to Damascus after Israel issued warnings that it would shoot them down if they entered Syrian airspace. The New York Times reported that Israel expressed concerns that the flights were transferring weapons and possibly carrying troops to support the Syrian government. This incident complicates Iran's ability to mobilize forces to assist President Bashar al-Assad amid ongoing tensions in the region.
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Direct negotiations • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Mediation by third party • 25%
No diplomatic efforts • 25%
Successful de-escalation • 25%
Continued tensions without escalation • 25%
Escalation to military conflict • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Formal peace talks initiated • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Formal peace talks • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful de-escalation • 25%
Partial de-escalation • 25%
No change • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
New diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
No negotiations held • 25%
Successful de-escalation • 25%
Continued military conflict • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Increased conflict • 25%
Successful de-escalation • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Sanctions Imposed on Israel • 25%
Official Condemnation of Israel • 25%
No Action Taken • 25%
Other • 25%