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Outcome of increased South China Sea tensions by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from international relations analysts or official government statements
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China's PLA Navy Conducts First Dual-Carrier Drills in South China Sea with Liaoning, Shandong, and J-35 Stealth Fighters
Oct 31, 2024, 08:04 AM
The People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy of China has conducted its first dual-carrier formation drills in the South China Sea, utilizing its aircraft carriers, the Liaoning and Shandong. This significant exercise aims to enhance the operational capabilities of the carriers, as reported by Xinhua. The drills are seen as a strategic move to bolster China's naval presence in the region, particularly as the J-35 stealth fighters are expected to be deployed on these carriers, improving their air superiority and fleet air defense capabilities. The exercise is viewed as a crucial step in asserting China's maritime interests, especially concerning foreign naval forces near Taiwan.
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Resolution through negotiations • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
China backs down • 25%
Philippines backs down • 25%
Mutual agreement reached • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Philippines gains control • 25%
China gains control • 25%
Ongoing standoff • 25%
Joint control agreement • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Continued Standoff • 25%
Military Engagement • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution • 25%
Resolution favoring the Philippines • 25%
Resolution favoring China • 25%
Mutual agreement • 25%
No resolution • 25%
United Nations sanctions China • 25%
ASEAN issues a joint statement • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Other significant international response • 25%
Military engagement • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
UN sanctions on China • 25%
UN sanctions on Philippines • 25%
UN sanctions on both • 25%
No UN sanctions • 25%
