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Number of GOP senators facing Musk-backed primary challenges by December 31, 2025
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
0-2 senators • 25%
3-5 senators • 25%
6-10 senators • 25%
More than 10 senators • 25%
Public announcements of primary challenges and endorsements by Elon Musk
Story
Elon Musk Warns GOP Senators of Primary Challenges Over Kash Patel Vote
Dec 1, 2024, 05:20 PM
Elon Musk has publicly declared his intention to politically oppose any Republican senators who do not vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director. Musk emphasized that Patel's confirmation is a critical issue for the MAGA movement, describing it as a 'line in the sand.' The Senate, composed of 53 Republican members, is expected to vote on Patel's nomination, with Musk warning that senators opposing Patel will face immediate primary challenges.
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None • 25%
1-2 • 25%
3-4 • 25%
5 or more • 25%
Mitt Romney • 25%
Susan Collins • 25%
Lisa Murkowski • 25%
Other • 25%
Senator A • 25%
Senator B • 25%
Senator C • 25%
Other • 25%
Senator A • 25%
Senator B • 25%
Senator C • 25%
Other/None • 25%
Texas • 25%
Florida • 25%
Ohio • 25%
Other • 25%
Musk-backed candidate wins • 25%
Incumbent wins • 25%
Runoff required • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Kevin McCarthy • 25%
Mitch McConnell • 25%
Lindsey Graham • 25%
Other • 25%
Thom Tillis • 25%
Lindsey Graham • 25%
Other named Senator • 25%
No announcement by any Senator • 25%