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Number of Chinese 'combat patrols' around Taiwan by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
1-2 patrols • 25%
3-4 patrols • 25%
5-6 patrols • 25%
More than 6 patrols • 25%
Reports from Taiwan's defense ministry or reputable international news outlets
Story
Taiwan Reports First Chinese 'Combat Patrol' of 2025 with 22 Aircraft, Including J-16 Fighter Jets
Jan 2, 2025, 06:04 AM
Taiwan's defense ministry reported that 22 Chinese military aircraft, including J-16 fighter jets, and warships conducted the first 'combat patrol' of 2025 around the island on Thursday morning. This military activity followed comments from Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, who reiterated his willingness to engage in dialogue with Beijing. The aircraft were detected in the northern, central, southwestern, and eastern air defense identification zones (ADIZ) of Taiwan, with 18 of them crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan's forces monitored and responded to the situation accordingly.
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More than 90 ships • 25%
50 to 70 ships • 25%
Less than 50 ships • 25%
71 to 90 ships • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased military exercises • 25%
Continued presence without escalation • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Engagement in conflict • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased military activity • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
