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Market
Most likely North Korean action against South Korean interests abroad in 2024
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Cyberattacks • 25%
Physical attacks • 25%
Surveillance operations • 25%
No significant actions • 25%
Analysis from global security and intelligence reports
Story
South Korea Raises Terror Alert for Five Embassies, Cites North Korea Threats
May 2, 2024, 09:50 AM
South Korea has heightened its terrorism alert levels for five diplomatic offices overseas due to credible intelligence of potential terrorist threats from North Korea. The South Korean foreign ministry made this decision on May 2nd, following reports that North Korea may be preparing to target South Korean diplomats and civilians abroad with increased surveillance operations. This action reflects growing regional tensions, further exacerbated by concerns over North Korea's military collaborations with Russia.
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Military Action • 25%
Economic Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic Pressure • 25%
No Retaliation • 25%
Military Action • 25%
Diplomatic Measures • 25%
Economic Sanctions • 25%
No Action • 25%
Further missile tests • 33%
Diplomatic engagement • 33%
No further actions • 34%
New sanctions • 33%
UN condemnation • 33%
No significant international response • 34%
Naval exercise • 25%
Air force drill • 25%
Artillery firing • 25%
No action • 25%
Increase loudspeaker broadcasts • 25%
Engage in diplomatic talks • 25%
Deploy more troops to the border • 25%
Seek UN intervention • 25%
Academic Institutions • 25%
Think Tanks • 25%
Journalists • 25%
Nonprofit Organizations • 25%
Resolution passed • 33%
Resolution not passed • 33%
No action taken • 33%
Increased US military presence • 33%
Increased South Korean military drills • 33%
No significant change • 34%
UN Sanctions • 25%
International Condemnation • 25%
Diplomatic Talks • 25%
No Significant Action • 25%