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Market
Military response in the Korean Peninsula by June 2024
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased US military presence • 33%
Increased South Korean military drills • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Satellite imagery and defense analysis reports
Story
North Korea Fires Ballistic Missile Towards Sea of Japan
Apr 22, 2024, 06:10 AM
North Korea has conducted a ballistic missile test, launching at least one missile towards the Sea of Japan. The missile was fired off North Korea's east coast and has already fallen into the sea, as confirmed by South Korea's military and the Japan Coast Guard. This incident has been reported by multiple sources including AP, NHK, and South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff.
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Increase in presence • 33%
Decrease in presence • 33%
No change • 33%
UN Security Council meeting • 25%
New sanctions on North Korea • 25%
Increased military presence in the region • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Increased presence • 33%
Maintained current level • 34%
Decreased presence • 33%
Increase in missile tests • 33%
Decrease in missile tests • 33%
No change in policy • 34%
Increase in scale • 25%
Decrease in scale • 25%
No change • 25%
Suspension of exercises • 25%
Increase in military alertness • 25%
No change • 25%
Reduction in military presence • 25%
Strategic alliances formed • 25%
De-escalation through talks • 25%
Continued military standoff • 25%
Minor skirmishes • 25%
Escalation to armed conflict • 25%
Increased military readiness • 50%
No change in readiness • 25%
Decreased military readiness • 25%
Increase in frequency • 33%
Decrease in frequency • 33%
No change in frequency • 33%
Missile test • 33%
Artillery test • 33%
Nuclear test • 33%