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Most launch failures under Lane 1, Phase 3 by end of 2026?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
SpaceX • 33%
Blue Origin • 33%
ULA • 33%
Launch failure records from each company and official announcements from the U.S. Department of Defense or U.S. Air Force
Story
Pentagon Selects SpaceX, Blue Origin, ULA for $5.6 Billion Rocket Contracts Through 2029
Jun 13, 2024, 10:06 PM
The Pentagon has selected SpaceX, Blue Origin, and United Launch Alliance (ULA) to compete for rocket launch awards under its Lane 1, Phase 3 program. The contract, valued at up to $5.6 billion, will run through 2029. This selection marks the first time Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin has been included in the Pentagon's launch sweepstakes. The awards are part of the NSSL Phase 3 program and involve the U.S. Air Force.
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SpaceX • 25%
Blue Origin • 25%
Rocket Lab • 25%
United Launch Alliance • 25%
Less than 5 • 25%
5 to 10 • 25%
11 to 15 • 25%
More than 15 • 25%
Successful launch and landing • 25%
Successful launch but failed landing • 25%
Failed launch • 25%
Launch delayed • 25%
Of Course I Still Love You • 33%
Just Read the Instructions • 33%
A Shortfall of Gravitas • 33%
1-2 • 33%
3-4 • 33%
5 or more • 34%
Successful splashdown • 33%
Explodes on reentry • 33%
Fails to launch • 34%
Helium Leak • 25%
Thruster Failure • 25%
Software Malfunction • 25%
Other Issue • 25%
Successful splashdown • 33%
Successful landing • 33%
Test failure • 34%