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Military incidents between Indonesia and China in South China Sea by mid-2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
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Reports from international news agencies such as BBC, CNN, or Al Jazeera
Story
Indonesia’s Prabowo Secures $10B China Deals, Reaffirms South China Sea Sovereignty
Nov 12, 2024, 02:45 AM
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto signed $10 billion in new cooperation agreements with China during a visit to Beijing on November 9. The deals encompass sectors such as minerals, green technology, and maritime cooperation, reflecting a strengthening of the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two nations. Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed readiness to work with Indonesia's new government to promote unity, self-reliance, collaboration, and mutual benefit, stating that China and Indonesia aim to "write a new chapter" in their relations. Despite this economic collaboration, Indonesia reaffirmed its stance of not recognizing China's 'Nine-Dash Line' claims in the South China Sea, emphasizing that all accords respect Indonesian sovereignty. The two countries agreed to address "overlapping claims" through negotiation, indicating a willingness to engage in dialogue over disputed territories. Officials and experts note that Indonesia's recent agreements with China underscore a deliberate pivot toward Beijing for economic growth while testing the limits of regional diplomatic flexibility and neutrality. The developments highlight Indonesia's efforts to balance relationships with major global powers.
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No further incidents • 25%
Minor incidents • 25%
Major incidents • 25%
Escalation to armed conflict • 25%
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Naval encounter • 25%
Airspace violation • 25%
Fishing rights dispute • 25%
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