Market
Will Trump suspend security clearances of 51 officials by February 28, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcement from the White House or credible news outlets
Story
Trump to Suspend Security Clearances of 51 Officials for False Russian Disinformation Claims on Hunter Biden's Laptop
Jan 20, 2025, 01:11 AM
President-elect Donald Trump plans to suspend the security clearances of 51 former intelligence officials who claimed that reporting on Hunter Biden's laptop had 'the classic earmarks' of Russian disinformation ahead of the 2020 election. This action is part of a series of executive orders Trump is expected to sign on his first day back in the Oval Office. The officials had signed a letter in 2020 suggesting that the laptop story was part of a Russian disinformation campaign, despite no evidence supporting their claims. The decision to suspend the clearances is aimed at addressing what Trump perceives as corruption within the intelligence community.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No legal challenge • 25%
Reversal of suspension • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Legal challenge filed • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Blocked by legal action • 25%
Revoked by Trump administration • 25%
Implemented without issue • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other • 25%
John Brennan • 25%
Michael Hayden • 25%
James Clapper • 25%
Violation of confidentiality • 25%
Other • 25%
National security concerns • 25%
Political misconduct • 25%
NSA • 25%
FBI • 25%
CIA • 25%
Other • 25%
Policy is modified • 25%
Policy is reversed • 25%
Policy continues unchanged • 25%
Other outcome • 25%