Market
Will there be a change in alliances or support for Kurdish forces in Syria by December 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased support from Israel • 25%
Increased support from another country • 25%
Decrease in support • 25%
No change in support • 25%
Official announcements from involved countries or verified reports from credible news agencies
Story
Turkey Warns It Will Shoot Down Israeli Aircraft Supporting PKK, YPG in Syria After U.S. Drone Incident
Dec 14, 2024, 06:05 AM
Turkey has issued a warning regarding potential military action against Israeli aircraft in Syria. Reports indicate that the Turkish General Staff has received orders to shoot down Israeli warplanes if they provide support to Kurdish forces, specifically the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) and YPG (People's Protection Units). This comes amid claims that Syrian Kurdish groups have sought assistance from Israel, including air support against Turkish-backed forces. Turkish media has emphasized that the Kurdish factions are considered adversaries of the new Syrian government, further complicating the already tense dynamics in the region. The situation escalated following an incident where a U.S. drone was reportedly shot down by PKK militants, who mistakenly believed it to be a Turkish aircraft.
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No change • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Decreased support • 25%
Increased support • 25%
Increased control by Turkey • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Control remains unchanged • 25%
Increased control by YPG • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Complete withdrawal of support • 25%
Increased military support • 25%
Continued current support • 25%
Reduced support • 25%
Significant reduction • 25%
No change • 25%
Minor reduction • 25%
Increase in presence • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Still operational • 25%
Merged with Syrian government forces • 25%
Disbanded • 25%
Other status • 25%
Decreased support • 25%
Increased support • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other policy change • 25%
