Market
Will Russia obtain security guarantees from NATO or the EU by the end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from NATO, the EU, or the Russian government, reported by major news outlets.
Story
Russia Rejects Trump's Call for Ukraine Ceasefire; Lavrov Seeks Security Guarantees After Three Years of Conflict
Dec 26, 2024, 02:15 PM
Russia has rejected incoming U.S. President Donald Trump's call for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, stating instead that it is willing to engage in negotiations for a long-lasting peace agreement to conclude nearly three years of conflict. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov characterized a ceasefire as a 'road to nowhere,' arguing that it would allow Ukraine to strengthen its military capabilities. Lavrov emphasized the need for security guarantees in any future discussions, indicating that Russia is looking for a binding deal that ensures peace and security for itself and its neighbors.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
NATO • 25%
EU only • 25%
None • 25%
U.S. only • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Military alliance • 25%
Diplomatic agreements • 25%
Other • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No new security guarantees • 25%
Comprehensive security guarantees • 25%
Limited security guarantees • 25%
Security guarantees revoked • 25%