Market
What will be the main reason cited by Russia for rejecting a ceasefire in Ukraine by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Military strategy • 25%
Lack of trust in Ukraine • 25%
International pressure • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from the Russian government or analysis by major news agencies.
Story
Russia Rejects Trump's Call for Ukraine Ceasefire; Lavrov Seeks Security Guarantees After Three Years of Conflict
Dec 26, 2024, 02:15 PM
Russia has rejected incoming U.S. President Donald Trump's call for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, stating instead that it is willing to engage in negotiations for a long-lasting peace agreement to conclude nearly three years of conflict. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov characterized a ceasefire as a 'road to nowhere,' arguing that it would allow Ukraine to strengthen its military capabilities. Lavrov emphasized the need for security guarantees in any future discussions, indicating that Russia is looking for a binding deal that ensures peace and security for itself and its neighbors.
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Other condition • 25%
Territorial concessions • 25%
NATO non-expansion guarantee • 25%
Lifting of sanctions • 25%
Political strategy • 25%
Security concerns • 25%
Broader conflicts • 25%
Economic reasons • 25%
Missile attack on Kyiv • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increased cyber attacks • 25%
Military actions • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Nuclear deterrence • 25%
