Market
Will RN initiate a censure motion against the French government over the 2025 Social Security budget by December 31, 2024?
3
Michel Barnier•Social Security•National Assembly•Rassemblement National•RN•Marine Le Pen•Barnier•Jordan Bardella
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official records from the French National Assembly or confirmed reports from major news outlets
Story
French PM Barnier to Use Article 49.3 for Social Security Budget, RN Threatens Censure
Dec 2, 2024, 07:55 AM
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier is set to use special constitutional powers, known as Article 49.3, to pass the 2025 Social Security budget without a vote in the National Assembly, risking a no-confidence vote. This decision comes after the Rassemblement National (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, threatened to vote for a censure motion unless Barnier made significant concessions. The government's move to bypass parliamentary vote has intensified political tensions, with RN leader Jordan Bardella stating that his party will vote for censure 'unless a last-minute miracle occurs.' Despite Barnier's efforts to negotiate, including discussions on the indexation of pensions, the RN has maintained its stance, pushing the government towards a potential political crisis.
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Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No concessions to RN • 25%
Budget not passed • 25%
Partial concessions to RN • 25%
Full agreement with RN demands • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
File another motion of censure • 25%
No major action • 25%
Call for early elections • 25%
Organize protests • 25%
Existing alliances strengthened • 25%
No significant alliance changes • 25%
Alliances weakened • 25%
New alliances formed • 25%
Budget passed with major amendments • 25%
Budget rejected and reintroduced • 25%
Budget passed as initially proposed • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
