Market
Will Hamas recruit 5,000 more fighters by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from U.S. intelligence or verified by credible media outlets
Story
Hamas Recruits 10,000 to 15,000 New Fighters After 15 Months of War with Israel, Despite Ceasefire
Jan 25, 2025, 06:36 AM
Hamas has recruited between 10,000 and 15,000 new fighters since the onset of its war with Israel, according to two congressional sources briefed on U.S. intelligence. This recruitment has occurred despite the group losing a similar number of fighters during the conflict, which has lasted 15 months. The new recruits are primarily young and untrained, often assigned to basic security roles. The war, which began on October 7, 2023, has led to significant casualties, with more than 46,000 people reported killed in Gaza, including both civilians and combatants. A ceasefire between Hamas and Israel was initiated, but the situation remains tense with Hamas quickly reimposing security measures and attempting to restore basic services in the devastated Gaza Strip.
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Similar markets
Combat • 25%
Security tasks • 25%
Logistics support • 25%
Other • 25%
10,001 to 15,000 • 25%
5,000 to 10,000 • 25%
Less than 5,000 • 25%
More than 15,000 • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic actions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increase to 300 recruits • 25%
Increase to 400 recruits • 25%
Increase to 200 recruits • 25%
No increase • 25%
Weakened • 25%
Dismantled • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Strengthened • 25%
