Market
What major policy change will occur in Canada-U.S. relations in 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Trade Policy • 25%
Security Policy • 25%
Immigration Policy • 25%
No Major Change • 25%
Official announcements from the Canadian or U.S. governments or verified news outlets
Story
Trudeau and Foreign Minister Joly Reject Trump's Annexation Comments: 'No Chance Canada Joins U.S.'
Jan 7, 2025, 07:45 PM
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau firmly dismissed the idea of Canada becoming part of the United States. "There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States," Trudeau stated. He emphasized that "workers and communities in both our countries benefit from being each other’s biggest trading and security partner." Canada's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mélanie Joly, added, "Canada will never back down in the face of Donald Trump's threats." Trudeau's remarks were in response to comments by Donald Trump suggesting the integration of Canada into the U.S.
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No major changes • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
Significant tariff reductions • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Tariffs implemented • 25%
Tariffs negotiated • 25%
Trade agreement revised • 25%
Reduced tariffs • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
No change • 25%
Formal merger talks • 25%
Strengthened economic ties • 25%
Increased military cooperation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Relations deteriorate • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Deteriorated Relations • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Improved Relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Trade • 25%
Border security • 25%
Fentanyl and drug smuggling • 25%
Canada becomes U.S. state • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
New tariffs imposed • 25%
Border Security • 25%
Drug Cartel Cooperation • 25%
Trade Agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Trade agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Comprehensive economic integration • 25%
Security agreement • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
No Resolution • 25%
Informal Understanding • 25%
Formal Agreement Reached • 25%
Improved • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Worsened • 25%