Market
Who will be identified as responsible for planting the bomb in Haniyeh's room by June 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Mossad • 25%
Iranian dissidents • 25%
Internal Hamas factions • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from credible intelligence agencies or news outlets
Story
Israeli Channel 12 Reports Ismail Haniyeh Assassinated by Bomb Hidden in Pillow in Tehran Before Inauguration Ceremony
Dec 28, 2024, 07:20 PM
Israeli Channel 12 has reported that Ismail Haniyeh, the late head of Hamas, was assassinated in Tehran through a bomb concealed in his personal pillow. The channel indicated that new details regarding the assassination will be disclosed next Saturday, revealing how the bomb was placed in Haniyeh's room. The report suggests that the assassination was carried out by the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad, with the bomb strategically positioned to avoid collateral damage. Additionally, it was noted that Haniyeh had been observed visiting the same location in Tehran multiple times and staying in the same room. The bomb was reportedly planted before the inauguration ceremony of the new Iranian president.
View original story
Similar markets
Guided missile • 25%
Unconfirmed • 25%
Bomb in pillow • 25%
Other method • 25%
Hezbollah • 25%
Hamas • 25%
Lone Wolf • 25%
Other • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Another entity confirmed as responsible • 25%
No conclusive result • 25%
Mossad confirmed as responsible • 25%
Hamas • 25%
No group identified • 25%
A previously unknown group • 25%
Islamic Jihad • 25%
Hamas • 25%
Lone wolf attackers • 25%
Islamic Jihad • 25%
Other • 25%
Lone Wolf Attack • 25%
Other • 25%
Hamas • 25%
Islamic Jihad • 25%
Iran • 25%
Other • 25%
Qatar • 25%
Turkey • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yahya Sinwar • 25%
Ismail Haniyeh • 25%
Mohammed Deif • 25%
Other • 25%