Market
Which key NATO member will support Ukraine's membership by February 28, 2025?
3
Volodymyr Zelensky•NATO•Ukraine•Russia•Russian•Zelensky•Trump•Donald Trump•Foreign Ministry•Budapest Memorandum•Brussels•Kyiv•France•UK•Germany•Hungary
Resolution / Starting Odds
US supports • 25%
Germany supports • 25%
Hungary supports • 25%
None support • 25%
Statements from NATO countries or official NATO communications
Story
Zelensky Seeks NATO Invite, Open to Cease-Fire; Ukraine Rejects Alternatives After Budapest Failure
Dec 3, 2024, 06:52 AM
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has intensified calls for a formal invitation to join NATO, stating that full membership is the only real guarantee for Ukraine's security. He indicated willingness to consider a cease-fire with Russia if Ukraine receives a NATO invite, even if some occupied territories remain under Russian control temporarily. Zelensky emphasized that "there will be no surrender from Ukraine and Trump knows it," highlighting the urgency following Donald Trump's election victory. Ukraine's Foreign Ministry officially rejected any alternatives to full NATO membership, recalling the failure of past security assurances like the Budapest Memorandum. Despite Ukraine's push, NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels are expected to sidestep Kyiv's request for a quick invite, with member nations divided—France and the UK support the invitation, while the U.S., Germany, and Hungary oppose it. Zelensky insists that an invitation to join the alliance is necessary for Ukraine's survival and the only true deterrent against Russian aggression.
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Similar markets
United States • 25%
United Kingdom • 25%
France • 25%
Germany • 25%
Majority support but no consensus • 25%
Majority support with consensus • 25%
Minority support • 25%
No significant support • 25%
No clear position • 25%
Support Ukraine's membership • 25%
Oppose Ukraine's membership • 25%
Propose alternative security measures • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Formal invitation extended • 25%
Rejection of membership request • 25%
Alternative security guarantees offered • 25%
No official response • 25%
Membership negotiations ongoing • 25%
No progress on membership • 25%
Ukraine receives full membership • 25%
Membership invitation issued but not finalized • 25%
Membership granted • 25%
Membership delayed • 25%
Membership denied • 25%
No change • 25%
No application • 25%
Membership granted • 25%
Membership application rejected • 25%
Membership application pending • 25%
No official stance • 25%
Majority in favor • 25%
Majority against • 25%
Evenly split • 25%