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Which countries will be involved in negotiating a new nuclear agreement with Iran by mid-2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
U.S. and Iran only • 25%
U.S., Iran, and European countries • 25%
U.S., Iran, and Russia/China • 25%
U.S., Iran, and Middle Eastern countries • 25%
Official statements from involved countries or international diplomatic bodies
Story
Trump Appoints Steve Witkoff to Lead Iran Diplomacy for New Nuclear Agreement
Jan 23, 2025, 04:07 PM
President Donald Trump is set to appoint his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, to lead diplomatic efforts concerning Iran, according to multiple sources including two senior American officials. This move suggests that Trump is willing to explore diplomatic avenues before escalating pressure on Tehran. The decision is seen as an indication of Trump's interest in negotiating a new nuclear agreement with Iran, specifically addressing concerns over Tehran's nuclear programme.
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Other combination • 25%
US, EU, Russia, China • 25%
US, EU only • 25%
Russia, China only • 25%
U.S., EU, Russia, China • 25%
Other combinations • 25%
U.S., Russia, China only • 25%
U.S., EU only • 25%
China • 25%
United States • 25%
Germany • 25%
Russia • 25%
China • 25%
Russia • 25%
European Union • 25%
United States • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Negotiations failed • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Push for alternative solutions • 25%
Oppose US efforts • 25%
Support US efforts • 25%
Germany • 25%
Other • 25%
UK • 25%
France • 25%
Russia • 25%
Other • 25%
European Union • 25%
China • 25%