Market
What will be the reaction of the European Union to a potential FPÖ-led government in Austria by May 31, 2025?
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Austrian•Alexander Van der Bellen•Herbert Kickl•Freedom Party•FPÖ•ÖVP•Social Democrats•SPÖ•Hofburg•Van der Bellen•Kickl•Austria•World War II
Resolution / Starting Odds
EU issues formal statement • 25%
EU takes diplomatic action • 25%
No significant reaction • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Statements or actions from the European Union or credible news sources
Story
Austrian President Tasks Far-Right Leader Kickl with Forming Government, Marking Post-WWII First
Jan 6, 2025, 12:40 PM
Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen has tasked Herbert Kickl, leader of the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), with forming a new government after coalition talks between the conservative People's Party (ÖVP), the Social Democrats (SPÖ), and the liberals collapsed. In a meeting held on Monday at the Hofburg, Van der Bellen emphasized that his decision was not taken lightly and stated that he will ensure the Austrian constitution is respected during the government formation process. Kickl, who could become Austria's first FPÖ chancellor since World War II, will begin negotiations with the ÖVP, which has reversed its previous stance and signaled readiness to negotiate with the FPÖ. Protests have formed against a potential FPÖ and ÖVP coalition.
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Relations remain stable • 25%
Major conflict arises • 25%
Relations weaken • 25%
Relations strengthen • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Mild criticism • 25%
Strong condemnation • 25%
Supportive stance • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Coalition formed • 25%
Talks fail, FPÖ forms minority government • 25%
Talks fail, new elections called • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Coalition formed • 25%
Coalition formed • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
New elections announced • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
SPÖ forms a government • 25%
ÖVP forms a government • 25%
FPÖ forms a government • 25%
New elections are held • 25%
Increase in protests • 25%
Decrease in protests • 25%
Protests remain stable • 25%
Protests end • 25%