Market
What will be the outcome of Herbert Kickl's government formation attempt by April 30, 2025?
2
Austrian•Alexander Van der Bellen•Herbert Kickl•Freedom Party•FPÖ•ÖVP•Social Democrats•SPÖ•Hofburg•Van der Bellen•Kickl•Austria•World War II
Resolution / Starting Odds
FPÖ-ÖVP coalition formed • 25%
Coalition with SPÖ • 25%
Minority government • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Official announcements from the Austrian government or credible news sources
Story
Austrian President Tasks Far-Right Leader Kickl with Forming Government, Marking Post-WWII First
Jan 6, 2025, 12:40 PM
Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen has tasked Herbert Kickl, leader of the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), with forming a new government after coalition talks between the conservative People's Party (ÖVP), the Social Democrats (SPÖ), and the liberals collapsed. In a meeting held on Monday at the Hofburg, Van der Bellen emphasized that his decision was not taken lightly and stated that he will ensure the Austrian constitution is respected during the government formation process. Kickl, who could become Austria's first FPÖ chancellor since World War II, will begin negotiations with the ÖVP, which has reversed its previous stance and signaled readiness to negotiate with the FPÖ. Protests have formed against a potential FPÖ and ÖVP coalition.
View original story
Similar markets
Successful coalition formed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations extended • 25%
Negotiations fail, new elections called • 25%
FPÖ forms coalition with another party • 25%
No coalition formed • 25%
FPÖ-ÖVP coalition formed • 25%
New elections called • 25%
